A big problem with Trump’s tariffs isn’t that they exist; it’s that they’re subject to change at any moment. To be clear, they’re idiotic. But no one can invest in anything long term in America right now.
Imagine opening a restaurant in the U.S. right now. Half your kitchen equipment is subject to steel or aluminum tariffs. You don’t know if you can import anything. Or you can wait a year and see how full Trump’s diaper is. He also looks half dead without makeup and might have pissed off the Yakuza (or worse). The smart move is to wait to open your restaurant.
Now imagine any business bigger than a restaurant.
Imagine even a business that is supposed to benefit from tariffs, like garment manufacturing. Previously it wasn’t worth it because other countries could do it cheaper. So, now you could set up a garment factory and start making things in the US. You can buy cotton from Texas, spin it into yarn, make that yarn into cloth, do it all from seed to finished garment all in the USA.
But, can you really trust that these tariffs are going to be around for the long haul? If you invest $200k to start making clothing in the US, then Trump, the master negotiator, does a deal with Bangladesh and their tariffs go to zero again there’s no way you can compete and you’re out $200k.
Even if you’re extremely lucky and already had a US-based business that was surviving vs. overseas competition, would now be a good time to ramp up production? Sure, your goods are now much cheaper than your competitor’s goods, but with the economy cratering is anybody going to be buying?
There are times when tariffs can work extremely well for certain lucky companies, but they have to be targeted long-term tariffs. Not this chaos.
The economy isn’t cratering, the stock market is. The stock market is all about where investors think future profitability will be, whereas the economy is about jobs and consumer spending behavior. They’re related, but different concepts. Hopefully the economy weathers this nonsense.
And if investors think the future is extremely bleak they will cancel plans to expand, “right-size” their workforce, and so-on, which will smash the economy. The future looks incredibly bleak right now. Many businesses have stopped ordering at all from China because they have no idea what the tariffs will be once the goods arrive.
It all depends on how long the tariffs stay and what deals other countries make. A huge stock downturn can cause economic issues, but usually it’s the other way around.
…and then you finished reading the sentence, right? Just in case it adds more nuance or context, or makes an argument you didn’t consider, right? You engaged their comment in good faith and gave them the chance to make their case before deciding whether you actually disagree with them, right?
I wasn’t dismissing the problem that they exist. That’s the first problem. I was saying uncertainty prevents as much investment as do tariffs. No one knows what the tariffs will be in a month. His brain is a non-Newtronean fluid at this point.
A big problem with Trump’s tariffs isn’t that they exist; it’s that they’re subject to change at any moment. To be clear, they’re idiotic. But no one can invest in anything long term in America right now.
Imagine opening a restaurant in the U.S. right now. Half your kitchen equipment is subject to steel or aluminum tariffs. You don’t know if you can import anything. Or you can wait a year and see how full Trump’s diaper is. He also looks half dead without makeup and might have pissed off the Yakuza (or worse). The smart move is to wait to open your restaurant.
Now imagine any business bigger than a restaurant.
Imagine even a business that is supposed to benefit from tariffs, like garment manufacturing. Previously it wasn’t worth it because other countries could do it cheaper. So, now you could set up a garment factory and start making things in the US. You can buy cotton from Texas, spin it into yarn, make that yarn into cloth, do it all from seed to finished garment all in the USA.
But, can you really trust that these tariffs are going to be around for the long haul? If you invest $200k to start making clothing in the US, then Trump, the master negotiator, does a deal with Bangladesh and their tariffs go to zero again there’s no way you can compete and you’re out $200k.
Even if you’re extremely lucky and already had a US-based business that was surviving vs. overseas competition, would now be a good time to ramp up production? Sure, your goods are now much cheaper than your competitor’s goods, but with the economy cratering is anybody going to be buying?
There are times when tariffs can work extremely well for certain lucky companies, but they have to be targeted long-term tariffs. Not this chaos.
The economy isn’t cratering, the stock market is. The stock market is all about where investors think future profitability will be, whereas the economy is about jobs and consumer spending behavior. They’re related, but different concepts. Hopefully the economy weathers this nonsense.
And if investors think the future is extremely bleak they will cancel plans to expand, “right-size” their workforce, and so-on, which will smash the economy. The future looks incredibly bleak right now. Many businesses have stopped ordering at all from China because they have no idea what the tariffs will be once the goods arrive.
It all depends on how long the tariffs stay and what deals other countries make. A huge stock downturn can cause economic issues, but usually it’s the other way around.
Haven’t even finished reading your first sentence before I HARD disagree with you.
Appropriate username
…and then you finished reading the sentence, right? Just in case it adds more nuance or context, or makes an argument you didn’t consider, right? You engaged their comment in good faith and gave them the chance to make their case before deciding whether you actually disagree with them, right?
I wasn’t dismissing the problem that they exist. That’s the first problem. I was saying uncertainty prevents as much investment as do tariffs. No one knows what the tariffs will be in a month. His brain is a non-Newtronean fluid at this point.
Don’t feed the trolls.