• 0 Posts
  • 13 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: January 22nd, 2024

help-circle
  • but to say no one will surpass the US in the near term…

    Who is going to surpass the US in two years in every metric? China is still a “second world” country and dependent on the West for many trades. And Russia is, well, very much past its prime; and after the war in Ukraine, the financial and social consequences will have both immediate and long term consequences for the country.

    If the US power declines, and it is already happening, it will be gradual. It will not happen in five years but in another generation or two.


  • You are looking at the immediate impact of an outlier leadership rather than than the broader perspective. Fact of the matter is, the US is still the biggest market and still the leading country by long miles. I know the status of the US is under peril, but no country will surpass the US, nor will it even collapse in the more immediate future. Even the Republicans are pushing back since the market itself is getting affected. And you and I know what Republicans only care about.


  • The US market is unlikely to stagnate either in much the same way as Japan experiences it now for thirty years. As I mentioned to another poster, the US’ broad policy is being very business-friendly and immigrant-friendly, whereas Japan is only the former. Besides, oligarchs themselves are pissed. And even the staunchest Republicans who supported Trump before, motioned a bill to curb the unilateral declaration of tariffs by the executive branch to prevent this from ever happening again. I never thought in my wildest dreams to say that, for once, the market is correcting itself.


  • Domiciling to a new country for tax purposes does not mean all their operations will actually go there. Even if the new country is a convenient tax haven, does the new country have educated population, large workforce, good infrastructure, good rule of law? What are the legislations and regulations like? What are the local customs and culture like? Being a tax haven is not enough if those things are not applicable and conducive to do business. You mentioned Malta, they don’t have many people for many international businesses to set up and it is corrupt compared to other EU countries.

    The reason US is the dominant economic power is because of ease of doing business due to more relaxed regulation and access to huge amounts of capital. There is a reason that more US companies are thriving than in other regions. Ask any European venture capitalists and entrepreneurs as to why they came to US, and they will cite access to capital, huge manpower and market and ease of doing business-- unlike in Europe.

    It is unlikely that the US market will never recover should there be another Great Depression, because Americans-- both to ordinary people and elites-- still care about capitalism. Unless the US heads into a civil war, then okay maybe the American stock market is gone for good, but as long as it doesn’t happen-- US stocks will recover. Even as we speak, the Republicans have passed a motion to restrict the executive branch from imposing tariffs unilaterally. So that is a strong indication that oligarchs won’t let the market tank. The Republicans are all too aware what happened one hundred years ago that made them in minority in both senate and congress for 60 years.