A chief economist at investment giant Apollo says the top ten AI stocks are more detached from reality than the tech titans of the 1990s were. His chart is a stark warning that history is about to repeat itself.
The progress of OpenAI since february has been pathetic. The other major AI LLMs have surpassed it a lot. I want to see how they will justify the investment.
I’m fairly certain this is why the current administration is so vehement about not letting anyone regulate AI. We know it’s bubbling, they know it’s bubbling. It’s only a matter of time before the market finds irrefutable proof that AI has been oversold and investors bail.
Well, yeah. If I was a betting man, and I sometimes am, I would speculate that Democrats are going to hold the presidency next and it’ll be just in time for the stock market to crash.
All it will take is one investigation, one major implosion (hopefully NVIDIA, OpenAI, or both) or something else for the underpinning to come loose.
Since Republicans are unlikely to launch any kind of criminal probe (or other kind of interfering action), they can most likely keep the bubble propped up for quite a while.
TBH, what I am more scared of is if the bubble doesn’t pop soon. With OpenAI dumping money into consulting services and investors openly declaring that the end goal is to achieve vendor lock-in, it sets a ton of companies up for failure if they were dumb enough to make all of their core services dependent on OpenAI.
Either companies keep paying OpenAI to keep their core offerings alive or they can’t, and go bankrupt if they can’t convert their infrastructure and services.
The sooner that all of these shit OpenAI sub-service vendors die, the better. Venture capital will start drying up and OpenAI will lose their “path to profitability”. (It’s almost sounding like how meme coins support BTC… I digress.)
Hell, I haven’t even touched on inflated company valuations and how AI LLM market growth is being fabricated, in part, by shoving AI integrations into every product imaginable.
I’ll shut up now, but my point is that I am just applying the same shit I saw back in 2008 where the magic product was sub-prime mortgages coupled with hyper-risky market bets. Obviously, there are differences, but the core failure modes are the same.
I honestly don’t think ai can hold out that long. It’s 2025 and the mood is already souring.
If I had to guess, the entire reason they’re shoving AI integration into absolutely everything is to try to make it irreplaceably viable, if only to keep it relevant. The bubble pops when VC funding decides that maybe AI isn’t the holy grail they thought it was and the market on it tanks (bringing every associated stock down with it). Personally, I’m wondering if this bubble is what brings the house of cards down with it, because the amount of money that is all in on AI is absolutely insane, and for no good reason.
That’s exactly it, they’re making themselves “indispensable” at the consumer level to hold on for dear life.
But, on the other hand, you have companies like Klarna that are successfully using AI to replace, in one case, 700 humans or 3/4 of their tier 1 support staff. And every other company perks up at that. There is definitely a use case for AI, it’s still improving, and business will keep it going in some form (which will be great for the poor neighborhoods they put the data centers in).
Don’t get me wrong, I certainly think AI/LLMs have their uses, more as an aid to humans. Medical diagnostics, front line customer service, clerical, every industry could benefit from having a computer doing basic to even advanced level support. What we’re seeing now though is all these execs think that the tech is at the level where it can replace entire workforces, and that’s where the fallacy lies. Imo, humans should always make the final judgement, especially when these decisions involve affecting other people. It has the ability to improve and enrich lives, but the way things are going is that they’ll be used to make the line go up at the expense of people.
It’s insane. Either they are stupid or they think this awful product will be everywhere anyway. Also, what market will even exist when this idiocy destroys all of our institutions?
Every AI company CEO/C-suite is gambling that they won’t be left holding the bag.
Either AI fails and CEO/C-Suite made their money already, or AI succeeds and they carved an early lead in the market and gamble even more.
Workers are only there to build the biggest stack of chips possible before it gets cashed out.
While I’m sad that people will be hurt, I’ll dance when this shit collapses
Think of all the souls who will be trapped in the metaverse once the server shuts down. Dozens of people trapped in Zuckerberg’s purgatory. Real nightmare shit.
I don’t buy it. The top 10 companies are mooning not because of AI, but because they’re in bed with a powerful wannabe dictator. I don’t mean to sound grim, but if I were a betting man I’d put my money on the unfairly advantaged companies too. Luckily I index invest and don’t listen to this noise.
It’s backfiring badly as institutions get their data the hell away from American control. It will take a few years but the damage has already been done and can’t be reversed.
Article says there might not be a trigger… There’s always a trigger.
I wonder what will happen when the bubble bursts. I think there is a lot of people hoping this will mean that the fever dream ends and “AI” goes away. But how likely is that?
People hoping that are likely ignorant of what AI actually is. It’s incredibly unlikely that AI “ends”, at least not if/until things get really bad on a societal level to the point where our species loses its ability to produce and use technology altogether.
I’m not sure that this line’s up the same way that the tech bubble did back in the day. Right now, they’re firing people by the metric ass tons because AI can make existing people more agile at their jobs.
The collapse of AI might be more like the collapse of the horseless carriage. Do people come back and fill in for all the chatbots now?
deleted by creator
